Four years ago, Morocco’s fairy tale ended in Al Bayt Stadium. France won 2-0, and Les Bleus went on to the final.
Now the two sides meet again, one round earlier than last time, with a semifinal spot on the line instead.
Summary
France faces Morocco in the quarterfinals on Thursday, July 9, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough
Win-probability models heavily favor France, giving them 60.8%, against 15.8% for Morocco and 23.4% for a draw.
The 2022 Ghost in the Room
This will be just the second competitive meeting between these nations, and the first was unforgettable.
At Qatar 2022, Morocco had already made history as the first African team to reach a World Cup semifinal. Théo Hernandez scored inside five minutes, and Randal Kolo Muani sealed it late for a 2-0 French win.
Morocco went home having rewritten what an African nation could achieve at a World Cup. But history still says they’ve never actually beaten France when it mattered most.
Outside that semifinal, the sides have met five times without a single French defeat — three wins, two draws.
France’s Case: A Team That Simply Hasn’t Stumbled
France arrived having won all five matches so far, scoring 14 goals and conceding just two. No one left in the tournament has been more convincing.
They topped their group with wins over Senegal, Iraq, and Norway, then swept aside Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. Their toughest test came against Paraguay, a physical 1-0 grind settled by a Mbappé penalty.
Kylian Mbappé leads the tournament with seven goals, clocked as the fastest player in the competition at over 23 miles per hour. He’s currently one behind Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot.
Michael Olise has quietly been just as important. He’s the first player since Brazil’s Zico in 1978 to hit double figures in dribbles, open-play chances created, and through balls in a single World Cup debut.
France are also riding a seven-match winning streak in competitive football, their best run since 2002-2004. A win here would send Deschamps to a third straight World Cup semifinal — a feat only Germany and Brazil have managed this century.
Morocco’s Case: Unbeaten, Unbothered, Underestimated
Morocco haven’t lost a single match in 34 games stretching back well before this tournament.
Their group stage was a slow burn, a 1-1 draw with Brazil, a narrow 1-0 win over Scotland, a 4-2 win over Haiti. They needed penalties to get past the Netherlands in the Round of 32, then produced their most complete performance of the tournament, a 3-0 win over Canada.
Their attack runs through two players in exceptional form. Brahim Díaz has been directly involved in more goals than any other Morocco player since last year’s Africa Cup of Nations. Achraf Hakimi has created more chances than any defender at the last two World Cups combined, with 15 this tournament alone, the most by an African defender since 1966.
There’s a genuine injury concern, though. Ismael Saibari, who scored in every group game, went off with a thigh injury against Canada and is a doubt. If he’s out, the attacking burden shifts even further onto Díaz and Hakimi.
Where the Data Sees a Weakness
One data science team broke this match down to a single phrase: it’s a battle between Morocco’s right and France’s left.
Morocco does most of its attacking work through the right side, with Hakimi pushing high up the pitch. That leaves space behind him, exactly where Mbappé and Bradley Barcola like to operate for France.
Both players have been clocked among the fastest sprinters in the tournament. If that space opens up the way it has in all tournaments, it’s the clearest route to a French breakthrough.
The Bigger Picture
There’s a pattern worth knowing about France at World Cups this century. Half of their defeats in that span have come against African opposition, three losses in seven games, compared to just two defeats in 24 games combined against European and South American teams.
That history is the one thing keeping this from being a total mismatch on paper. Morocco knows exactly how to hurt teams in wide transition areas, and they’ve had four years to study this exact opponent.
What’s at Stake
The winner reaches the semifinals on July 14 in Dallas, facing whoever advances from Spain vs. Belgium.
For France, it’s a step toward a third World Cup title and a third consecutive final four. For Morocco, it’s a chance to finally get past the team that ended their historic run, and to prove 2022 wasn’t a ceiling.
FAQ
When and where is France vs Morocco? Thursday, July 9, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.
Who is favored to win? France, clearly. Win-probability models give them around 60.8%, with Morocco at 15.8% and a draw at 23.4%.
Have France and Morocco met before? Yes, six times total. Their only competitive meeting was the 2022 World Cup semifinal, which France won 2-0. France haven’t lost to Morocco in any of the other five.
How many goals does Mbappé have this tournament? Seven, the most of any player left in the competition, one behind Messi’s tournament-leading tally.
Is Ismael Saibari playing for Morocco? He’s a doubt after a thigh injury against Canada. If unfit, Morocco lean more heavily on Brahim Díaz and Achraf Hakimi.
What’s at stake for the winner? A semifinal spot in Dallas on July 14, against the winner of Spain vs. Belgium.
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